The Berlin DIW Institute expects growth of 0

The Germany breathe again. After being (very) fear at the beginning of the year, she sees with relief its main indicators return progressively in the green. Between April and June, after four consecutive quarters of decline, gross domestic product is again found on the rise. While modest growth (0.3), but psychologically decisive.

The morale of the business continues to improve. Not only their expectations, but also their perception of the current situation, are gradually moving black coal grey mouse. The confidence of consumers resist heroic manner. The bulk of the growth in the second quarter is indeed come to consumption of households ( 0.7), supported by a relative stability of unemployment (8.3 in August), inflation zero over one year, and the tax relief and premiums parental decided short-term programs. Some 10 billion euros of the Federal State spent on infrastructure, an essential element of stimulus spending, however slow consumption, according to the Court of Auditors. But it is because the invoice will be settled by the Länder and municipalities that once the work is completed, provides the Government of Angela Merkel.

At the rally, most forecasters review upward their forecasts for 2009 and 2010. The fall in production will likely not be 6 a moment feared this year. The Berlin DIW Institute expects growth of 0.8 of GDP in the third quarter. For the Minister of labour, unemployment will remain this year below the 4 million unemployed. After having long talk on scenarios in U, W, l, the country is to expect a V, fed by a rapid resumption of world trade.

Many players, starting with the employers, however prefer to remain cautious. The stabilization of the economy still left far from 2007-2008 levels. The country, called "exportjunkie" by the "Financial Times Deutschland", depends on the appetite of Spanish for faucets Hansgrohe hoteliers, rich Americans for the Porsche and Asian printers in the Heidelberg presses. And assuming that the tributary commands, companies can - they rely on their bankers The Government seems to doubt and wants at all costs avoid a "credit crunch" when companies, balance degraded by a year of crisis, will negotiate in the fall of an extension of their lines of credit. The Minister of the economy is preparing a plan of public support focused on the KfW, equivalent of the Caisse des Dépôts.

The great coalition therefore seems ready to go even further in the interventionism and mitigate the effects of the crisis. Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that it would be, "a day", go back and to abolish the public support and guarantee mechanisms put in place since last year. According to her, "the difficulty is to know what will be the right time." It was thought to understand, however, that it seemed still distant. A vision of the things that irritates the Liberal Party, now in opposition but ally potential and still a favorite of conservatives, after the legislative elections of September 27.

The leader of the FDP, the Liberal Party, which did not find words enough hard to condemn the premium case-sensitive - 5 billion EUR "burned" in eight months-, begins to give the vote to the conservatives 'Hatzair". Guido Westerwelle and Horst Seehofer, the pattern of the CSU, have seriously taclés, end of August, by proxy media. The Bavarians did understand that his camp wanted nor a relaxation of the procedures of dismissal or a discount in question minimum wage introduced into several branches.

A coalition with the Liberals therefore looks everything except peaceful for Angela Merkel, who said in his entourage: "remember, with the FDP, it was not easy", in reference to his experiences in Helmut Kohl's Government. It is even the Chancellor of the strange thoughts... It would be if a second grand coalition with the Social Democrats would not easier. After all, his first term of four years with the Social Democrats, which allowed him to govern above the party quarrels, he was very successful. A coalition with the FDP, on the other hand, would require him to find a new role, and he would suddenly be an opposition determined to Parliament, let alone a probable hardening of unions. Given the setbacks registered by the CDU regional last Sunday's elections, is to a scenario that it cannot be excluded.