Prices opened the gates of the metal recycling

Guess evolution near the gold course is the challenge in the current context. The experts of the independent Institute of research GFMS is there are not excluded. With the release of their latest annual opus, the Gold Survey 2009, they predict gold future in the image of the present uncertainties. For them, the yellow metal could be a drop leading below the $ 850 an ounce, "especially in the summer", while keeping intact a potential for progression which is likely to drive, this year, "well above the $ 1,000" with the perspective to not see peaking at 1,100 dollars. Otherwise said, investors in this precious will play roller coaster and try to keep their composure as the evolution of the courses may be of the order of 30 in the nine months remaining by the end of the year.

It is true that powerful forces, but of opposite sign, Act on the gold course. On the one hand, on the side of physical market, the situation is critical. Prices opened the gates of the metal recycling. The GFMS economists believe that in the first quarter the supply of gold recovery, which had already risen by 27 in 2008, more than 1,200 tonnes, exceeded by about 100 tonnes of gold volumes used by the jeweller industry and represented almost 80 of the mining production of the period.

Impeding factors

At the same time, demand for jewellery manufacturers will still fall in "substantial" proportions, by Philip Klapwijk, Chairman of the GFMS. The announced decline will follow 10 (250 tonnes) recorded last year. The single, thin hope Jewellers return en masse to purchase lies in the fall of the prices of gold at $ 850, consider specialists of the London Office. Always to the chapter of the impeding factors, there is net slowdown of redemptions by gold companies of contracts on the cover of the price of gold. Finally, it is likely that the mining production is progressing in the short term by providing for new operations. However, as for the increase of available recovery gold, this phenomenon may not last.

The elements that support the course, the first of them is naturally metal as instruments of financial investment purchases. Speculative flows of capital to gold will be encouraged at the same time by the threat of the return of inflation, the weakening of the dollar, the rise of prices of energy and the monetization of US federal debt by the Federal Reserve, said Philip Klapwijk. This last point is "a risk of long term for the operators, predicted the Research Institute." The volatility of equity markets implies that the worst is perhaps not yet behind us.

In 2008, the demand for gold for investment jumped by 76. The flight began in September with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Favor savers went to the easier to deal with paper gold: the trackers. Or net sales by central banks, already in decline of 49 in 2008, 246 tonnes, or those of the IMF, which would not begin before 2010, are a threat to the price of gold.