370 tonnes while exports jumped by 73 to 18

Copper is bright red. Complicit in a well short of breath green ticket, as soon as the first exchanges, yesterday, 3 months contract listed on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has over a $ 7,000 line per tonne, to 7.010 dollars, as September 24, 2008. Since this date, copper had accelerated its decline, falling on the eve of last Christmas, well below of 2.900 dollars per tonne. Once established this level, the copper is used to find its form passée. This increase is the result of several factors. In addition to the weakness of the dollar, the currency in which the price is expressed, the copper could count on the continued support of speculation, which has played and still plays this base metal for opportunities in the best gains related to the global industrial recovery.

But the element that has the most counted in the first months of 2009 is certainly one of the surprising strength of Chinese demand. Between January and September, Chinese purchases accounted for about 42 of the total world. For memory, on the whole of 2008, China had absorbed some 28 of the overall supply of red metal. Alone, the Beijing agency responsible for managing the strategic reserves of the country, the SRB (State Reserve Bureau), has acquired 235.000 tons of copper to meet the needs generated by the application of the recovery plan decided by the Executive. According to Macquarie Bank, the Chinese were imported, between January and October of this year, 2.8 million tonnes of the metal, an increase of 153 over the same period of 2008. And that, despite the collapse of demand in Western countries, the LME official stocks quickly melted until mid-July. Then the trend has reversed. Yesterday, they emerged to 425.000 tonnes, more than 65 increase from the 257.000 tonnes of July 14. In the same vein, China announced that its importations of copper fell in October for the fourth consecutive month (-40, to 169.370 tonnes), while exports jumped by 73 to 18.500 tons.

During this time, us demand continues to disappoint. Richard Adkerson, the patron of Freeport McMoRan, number two world producers of red metal behind the Chilean Codelco, recently recalled that the United States, the purchase of the last quarter of the year are generally low. "The situation has not changed in the United States and Europe." There are some positive signs. "Statistics are better, the markets are doing well, but it is still too early for all of this resulted in better figures in the application of cuivre", he said.

Risk of removal in 2010

The price however receive some support on the part of dropped offer. Macquarie Bank table on a flow rate of metal refined down 2.9 in 2009, to 17.8 million tonnes, for consumption, which would plunge by 4.1 to 17.4 million tonnes. However, in 2010, these experts predict production increased by 3.1 to 18.4 million tonnes, against a growth of 5.9 consumption. In other words, the fundamentals of the coming year be conducive to the copper. But it is quite possible that the first months of 2010 are punctuated by a passagère weakness. It is the opinion of Deutsche Bank, which particularly focuses on the risk of removal.