Caution is therefore development for banking players

Aentendre the leaders of the large European banks, a page has turned at the end of last year, the black of their recent history. Its most visible stigmata are the massive amounts of provisions for credit risks in 2009.

The phenomenon has spared no one, even if il could be offset by the very good results in the Investment Bank of some institutions, BNP Paribas, Barclays and Deutsche Bank as head. This is the level of bad debts, observed inflection on the last months of 2009, which is hoped a return to better fortune in 2010.

Sign of the rally, the British Lloyds Banking Group, who was among the biggest victims of the financial crisis, announced Friday anticipate a return to profit this year, taking into account the good performance of all his trades in the past two months.

Bad debt expense outlay

However, the page could be only half tour for bad loans remain a Cannonball in the accounts of the banks. The international monetary Fund (IMF) thus estimated end of 2009 that the institutions of the euro area had éclusé a 40 per cent of their impairment. However, delaying recovery to begin, of new corporate defaults should come increasing portfolio of bad loans from banks. In addition, "the United Kingdom and the Ireland are among the most affected, but elsewhere in Europe, the deterioration of the situation of commercial real estate is a sword of Damocles for banks," said Alain Branchey, in Fitch Ratings.

Finally, the engine of the investment bank likely to slow under the pressure of the new upcoming prudential rules, much more demanding equity, especially for these trades.

Caution is therefore development for banking players. Waiting to know their new regulatory framework, the stronger should focus on the strengthening of their fundamental and the absorption of their recent acquisitions, while the most vulnerable, including the Franco-Belgian Dexia, the British RBS and Lloyds Banking Group and the German Commerzbank, will attempt to demonstrate their viability despite the cut of their balance sheets and the flight of many shrivelled customers, as in UBS. The challenge is strong by the prospect of higher rates directors, promises a higher access to liquidity, then even the warranty of the States on the refinancing of these banks coming to an end.

Concern for the British

Move them all the cap Governments have learned the lesson of the crisis and they do not withdraw their support without to be assured that large banks can survive. Rating agencies incorporate this belief in the strength of the European institutions notes, which remain high regardless of their situation. However Standard & Poor's (S & P) and Moody's expressed particular concern for the British. "With the Banking Act, the United Kingdom has a legal framework which gives more flexibility than other States, explains Johannes Wassenberg, analyst at Moody's." Contrary to tradition, the British law now allows the regulator to impose on investors who are subordinated debt, also known as Tier-2, to assume the loss, even without bankruptcy of the establishment concerned. But the Tier-2 can represent up to half of the capital of British banks. "According to him, the obligation to develop a will settling their liquidation without evil financial system enhances the risk of loss for the investor. In this context, the winners of 2010 will be the institutions able to prove that they have really turned the page.