The smile of Barack Obama tense for some time

The White House is down. The smile of Barack Obama tense for some time. Unless unexpected miracle at Blair House - residence reserved for guests of the President, where is being held today the bipartisan Summit on health care reform - the "Obama machine" appears standstill. Difficult to imagine that the worthy heir of Roosevelt is reduced to beg for support from the Republicans to recover a partial reform of the medical coverage, failed to end bottom Massachusetts.

And yet, judging by the screams of whimpers of the American press, trapped by the failures of the estate of Ted Kennedy in the Democratic stronghold and its loss of influence over his own majority, the "new Lincoln" threaten to be "cartériser" at sight of eye. Tactical error on the order of priorities Or substantive misunderstanding on the fear of the "big government" "What is being tested here is not only our ability to resolve this problem, but our ability to solve any problem", has not hidden Barack Obama, thus placing the bar very high. Certainly, in its new proposals, published on the site of the White House on February 22, President sets always for ambitious goal to provide "affordable" medical coverage to the 31 million Americans who are today lacking. But, in order to rally the skeptics to the merits of the reform, it also now offers strict federal control of insurance premiums in justifying the Government interference in the system. Because, for him, it is the inflation of insurance premiums which is at the origin of the explosion of health expenditures (18 of GDP and 20 by 2018 if nothing is done). The problem is that according to a recent survey "New York Times" - CBS, 56 of Americans still prefer a "modest Government providing less services" to "a Government more important than service provider". PIs: 59 of Americans believe that the Federal State was too and 58 (versus 31) disagreed with the management of the public deficit by the Obama administration. It is the fear of the impact of the deficit (10 of GDP in 2009) to the taxpayer which feeds the atavistic fear of the "big government" (the excess of State).

The renewed interest in the poujadiste movement of the "tea party" is a new symptom shouting. Barack Obama now discovered with horror that it is easier to campaign on the universal to govern with the accession of an opinion traumatised by a 10 unemployment. After the victory of Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts, a defeat which cost the Democratic Party the majority of 60 seats in the Senate, the recent resignation of Democrat Senator of Indiana, Evan Bayh, is a new wake-up call. "It is not only a condemnation of the paralysis of the Conference, it is humiliating for the President;" "because, in the US system, the leadership of the President is supposed to hide the paralysis of the Congress," summarizes Nicholas Dungan, former President of the French-American Foundation. After the reform of the system of medical coverage the priority of the legislative agenda and one of the key issues of his term, Barack Obama is found trapped in his shaky relationship with the Congress.

If reform does not succeed, or if the reform is too diluted from the original design, this may be perceived as a serious personal failure for the President. Skilfully cropping his reform project in terms of the fight against deficits and control of costs, Barack Obama can still hope to rally the fiscally conservative "Blue Dogs" of the Democratic Party and the independent. But, except to consider a large bipartisan surge unlikely Republicans have little reason to support him on a shelf, only eight months of the mid-term elections of November 2, when voters will be asked to renew the entire House of representatives and one third of the Senate.

It remains to be Barack Obama the option to force through the procedure called "reconciliation", generally reserved for budgetary issues, and hide on a more "soft" version, more modest ambitions. In underestimating the atavistic distrust of the Americans to "big government" and the fear of tax in times of crisis increases, the Obama administration has done more than a tactical error. Except compromise surprise, the risk is great that the reform of the health of Obama turns into wet firecracker. And that his relationship with the Congress in severely flawed. This is why the impact of bipartisan Summit to this day far exceeds the health-care reform.