Of course it is not question here recession

But what on Earth were they doing in that galley Praised again a few months for their daring overseas acquisition policies, most of the major Indian groups cross, now the difficult times. Ambassadors of the "India shining" was dreaming of a destiny in Chinese, the Tata, Mittal, Suzlon and other Ranbaxy multiplied "beaten", to the delight of the national media and the Bombay Stock Exchange, systematically, clapped.

It was a time where Tata, the most iconic of all Indian patterns, offered the giant Anglo-Dutch steel, Corus, to its subsidiary, Tata Steel for $ 12 billion, before acquisition of Jaguar and Land Rover for the bagatelle of EUR 2.3 billion. It was also the time where the Indo-British Lakshmi Mittal put hands on Arcelor for $ 22 billion, to the chagrin of a France who suddenly discovered the inordinate ambition of patterns of the "great democracy of the world". It was the time, finally, Suzlon, the new star of wind energy, stole to Areva German REpower for almost $ 2 billion. With an undeniable plume, Indian capitalism was its resounding entry on the world stage.

A crushing debt

Amer flipping. Having carried out their acquisitions in full boom, Indian entrepreneurs the have paid the price very. Some, today, are largely overestimated. Particularly sensitive to the vagaries of business, the world steel market collapsed. Is rude for steel groups who had used the debt to grow. ArcelorMittal is in a bad pass, and Tata Steel gives serious signs of concern: the society purchased reports much less than what it cost. At the same time, Tata Motors took head-on the automotive crisis. Ratan Tata has also himself to confess to the Indian media that he had the eyes bigger than stomach and that he had bought Jaguar Land Rover at the wrong time. The columnist Prem Shankar Jha, this is no doubt: "Tata will be soon ruined." Excessive Not so sure: "the interest on its debt are around 700 million dollars annually, more than its annual profits."

For Tata, Ranbaxy, Suzlon and a few others, the time is therefore negotiations to reschedule debts. Objective: take the blow, the time that will last the crisis. In most cases, note Deepak Nayyar, one of the great Indian economists, "these groups pay the fact that they conducted their acquisitions with debt rather than exchanges of shares". It must be said that at the time the world buried under liquidity: the solution of the debt was tempting, as inexpensive. These groups have therefore suffered simultaneously the collapse of global demand and the draining of the credit, which has asphyxiated at the worst possible moment.

The fault no luck Not only. This would ignore the Indian context. At a time when the whole country is suspended from the imminent announcement of the outcome of the elections, it floats in the air a new concern. After the bloody bombings in Bombay, "Satyam case", a sort of "Enron scandal" Indian who has cast doubt on the accounting practices of some companies, the mood is no longer the same. And if the Bombay Stock Exchange resumed in recent weeks, "it is a large laugh" colors, decides Shivom Chakravarti, HDFC Bank economist. See, he says, a pure phenomenon of Bandwagoning at a time where most of the major stock markets want to believe that the worst of the crisis is past. Moreover, these last days, the Bombay Stock Exchange returned downward, because "of the catch of profit into a period of uncertainty."

The risks of an unstable coalition

Because, in a few hours of the publication of the final results of the elections, the rest thick fog: none of the two major parties should have the absolute majority. To form a coalition, both have started the waltz of the negotiations. In a country where "over any line of force ideologically, more no national vision, not structure political parties", as regret Mira Kamdar, author of several books on the India, shopping is done behind closed doors. Its basic mechanism is quite simple: every small party will go to sell to the highest bidder. Hence the bet of Prem Shankar Jha: "I can assure you that the ministries of trade, oil, Textile and industry will go to the coalition partners." They are lucrative positions where Ministers can derive financial benefit from the exercise of their functions...

On the bottom, in economic circles, is not so much this cynicism and corruption concerns the usual is taken. But all analysts fear the creation of an unstable coalition. Amitabh Kundu, Professor at the Delhi University, Jawaharlal Nehru, readily admits that the political decisions have rarely had a key role on the market of the Indian economy. But, on the other hand, he knows that "the stock market has always unscrewed when the Indian Government were low. Summing up the general opinion, it is says "concerned of the après-élection." If the coalition is formed of BRICs and broc, members will know that they are not there for a long time, which will encourage them to pay on the beast as quickly as possible. "To the detriment of economic piloting of this country".

The India have great need of a pilot. Of course, it is not question, here, recession. But the growth, after having flirted with 10, is falling below 5, according to the latest forecasts by the IMF. But a quarter of the Indian should still live with less than $ 1.25 per day in 2015 according to the World Bank, and half of the population is under 25 years. The social challenge is huge: each year, 14 million young people arrive on the labour market. It is this armada of mouths to feed who had said to the Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, that the India needed a growth of 10 to be at the height...

Today, some people want to put into perspective. Scanning the latest economic statistics bad , they think, the image of Amitabh Kundu, "the India will be among the first to leave when the crisis will be over." Talking of a "scenario v": a brutal fall followed by a quick restart. These optimists have for them a weight argument: the potential of the internal market, which could offer their salvation to the Indian groups destabilized by their international misadventures. Navi Radjou, who runs from Cambridge, the Center for India and Global Business, note as well as "the exporting sectors, which take head-on the global crisis, weigh only one-third of the gross domestic product." And it is too often forgotten about "the vitality of domestic demand and the rebound of savings, which supports investment domestic". A kind of anti-Chine: the State does not have the means to support the economy, but households, they may respond now to take the growth.

Others are more skeptical. First, they notice that the judgment suffered by the estate is unprecedented. The giant, DLF, which was given to slogan "Building India", appears on asphyxia. The fall of the price would be around 30 and bank loans are virtually frozen "especially for non-residential projects", said a promoter.

Grave threat to employment

The computer sector, it is doubtful a good observer in Bangalore: "the giants of the sector want to believe that the crisis will accelerate the use of the outsourcing of Western companies and thus boost their business." For now, it's the incantation. "Because, in addition to a global crisis, the high-tech companies now fear the protectionist temptation of Barack Obama: a tax reform and a decrease in the number of visas granted to the Indian"brains", it threatens to deal a blow to the entire sector.

Finally, as noted by Partha Mukhopadhyay, researcher at the Centre for Policy Research, "do not underestimate the effect of the export industries across the economy." If they weigh only one-third of the Indian economy, they influence millions of jobs. And to take the example of a cinema ticket, which costs about "one-tenth of the monthly salary of the employee base of the room". Implication: 10 entries and less for this film and it is the salary of an employee who disappears. The multiplier effect of the decrease in consumption of the middle classes thus represents a real threat. Of following Prem Shankar Jha, "talking about 10 million jobs destroyed by the end of 2009". Would be better, actually, that reboot is fast...